Power of prediction in politics

Have emphasized the predictive power we get with science, which to me is definitive. And helps so much with weeding out things which may claim to be, but actually are not, science. Which so many experience on the daily with flipping a light switch.

We unlike our ancestors have little excuse to get mystical about light on demand.

Where politics is an arena where prediction can have a massive impact. Like consider how important it could be, for you, to know much about what will happen politically long before it does.

But is it possible? With MY focus on predictive certainty one can debate to what extent political science exists! Like when was the last time you chuckled to yourself as noted prediction of a political scientist--people with the title do exist--as something DID happen as predicted? And you were like, yup that political scientist was dead on!!! (Um, I have never had that happen will note.)

Years ago talked what I call political science though which I found to be very depressing. And started by noting a prior post where hypothesized that wealthy people might prefer loaning the government money with bonds, like US Treasury bonds, versus supporting government with taxes. And full theory then is that in order to keep that happening they would do just about anything to drive up government debt, including if they could, start wars.

Today of course in the United States we have had yet another tax cut, where was less hidden why was happening than in the past with even slight explanation. And am telling you was predictable--though I decried it on my social media, and tried to get ahead by saying would not happen. Well shows the value of that as my own political science ideas would suggest it WOULD happen. And has also been a push for war I think, where was expecting that, as accepted theory there. And just so some people who are wealthy can try to pay less taxes? That is what the theory suggests strongly.

Oh yeah, in case you missed it with that analysis, point of tax cuts wasn't just the extra money wealthy did not have to pay into taxes, but to drive up the US national debt. They would need a steady pool of US Treasury notes so would work to maintain a federal deficit--according to the theory.

So am relying on predictive value. Theory suggests something and I check on what actually happens.

But very depressing predictions indeed. But with what value? Well let's say am not the only one who looks for predictive certainty. Others can check on such things themselves. Science is not about some person's opinion. Like that light bulb? Does not light because some guy says some things he calls science.

Predictive certainty is a powerful tool. Start thinking about how it might help you? And it might save your life, and the lives of others. Especially if you are a young person who might have been sent off to war, to fight so some already wealthy people, could get wealthier.

My belief is that as we value science properly, and value each other properly, we will get to better government. Oh and maybe get to political scientists who talk such things, and get that a ha I suggested earlier. We do need fewer surprises in politics and not more I do think.

We also need to expect more from each other. And I think is best when we expect the best from people who know, or should learn, better.

Power of prediction in politics? May quite simply be, helping enable a better world.


James Harris