Sunday, January 4, 2009

Quick recovery, but at what cost?

Link above goes to: The New York Times

Quote from the source:

Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery
Published: January 3, 2009
Many economists are heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over. Others are pessimistic.

I'm willing to go out on a limb and predict a very rapid economic recovery with the U.S. returning to growth in the second quarter.

Any reasoning behind that?

Well I'm no expert but as they are so terrible anyway, I don't feel bad about putting in my opinion, which is that money still wants to move to the U.S. and with so much information available--yup, I'm blaming the Internet--there will be huge growth from seemingly unlikely sources fueling a bunch of mini-booms, cumulative impact being, growth.

But then I expect a return to negative in the third quarter as no one sees this coming (but me) so there will be yet another adjustment.

Um, if I'm right, I get nothing really, which is what I get if I'm wrong, but could maybe some people start calling for the tossing out of these "experts" who are never right, either on the upside or the downside?

WHY, oh why, please tell me why, do these people get paid so well for being so terribly wrong all the time? Can someone answer me that basic question?

They are literally paid to fail.
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